Burma has been in the news quite a bit lately regarding ongoing human rights issues and the recent suppression of demonstrations. I thought it would be pertinent to post some background about the recent issues for people that are lesser informed, but still very interested in the topic. The following is a brief summary of the issues as I understand them.
In 1988, Burma’s ruling party agreed to hold democratic elections in the country. At the time the party believed it would win the popular vote and an election would further legitimate its continued rule of the government. Unfortunately for the ruling party, however, it did not win and ultimately refused to turnover power. When widespread demonstrations erupted in protest to the government’s decision, the military stepped in and established a junta regime.
In theory the regime has been working towards political reforms that will eventual allow for democratic rule, but in practice real change has been slow. The justification used internationally for the military junta's rule is that the country currently has no constitutional mechanism that would allow for a democratically elected party to rule. Although this reason hypothetically accepts that Burma only requires the creation of constitution that would allow for democratic turnover, in actually the regime has at best dragged its feet on commitments to create such a document. In its current stage, the ruling party has been allegedly working with foreign leaders to establish a draft set of ‘guiding principles’ that will inform the process of drafting of a new constitution, but this process has yielded few substantive results.
To date, the military junta has continued to rule the country with mixed success. On the surface, the military has maintained control over both the country and the people even while real support for the regime seems to be eroding. Exemplifying the types of controls the government relies is the house arrest of democratic opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi since 1989. Additionally, the importance of the military to many families as a social network for securing necessary commodities such as rice and oil enhances the grip of the junta. In combination with political suppression and widespread poverty, citizens lack the political and economic capacity to mount an effective challenge to the regime (listen to an interview by an expert on Burma studies here).
Yet the core issues that legitimate the regime's monopoly of force appear to be eroding. Burma expert and Dean of Social Sciences, Professor Ian Holliday, explains that poor economic planning mixed with recent acts of repression, and violence against Buddhist monks in particular, fundamentally challenge the regime’s claim to legitimacy (listen here).
Whether this will ultimately challenge the junta’s grip on power remains to be seen. Currently, on the surface most things seemed to have calmed and it is “business as usual” in
Burma. Still, there are reasons to suspect this is only superficial. Recent acts of political dissent by smaller groups appear to be growing. The posting of wall posters and other isolated acts of opposition (
www.mizzima.com) have not led to a coordinated effort as occurred in 1988, but it does suggest something. It could be that restriction on internet use (as well as its sluggish pace) and other communication makes cooperation difficult. It may also be that for now the government is effective in its policing. Yet the regime may be giving ground.
According to a statement today (10 November) by the democratic opposition party, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi may be released soon (www.mizzima.com). This follows an agreement to allow a UN special envoy’s visit to Burma and an exchange between democratic opposition leader and the UN representative. It also follows an understanding made between the democratic leader and the junta regime to cooperate on dialogue.
It is possible that recent moves are only symbolic gestures by the military junta in Burma. Nevertheless, this appears to be more than has happened in the past. No doubt international pressures played a decisive role in this outcome. Whether real substantive political change will occur as a result remains to be seen.
Written by Dan (East Asia Focus)
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In early October I conducted an interview as part of a University of Hong Kong program ("Global Passport") with the Dean of Social Sciences at the university, Ian Holliday. Professor Holliday is an expert in Burma studies and you can listen to the interview online here.
You may also find helpful information regarding Burma news at www.mizzima.com.
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